03228nas a2200301 4500008004100000022001400041245011700055210006900172260001600241300001100257490000600268520226200274653002402536653001902560653003002579653002202609653001102631653002502642653002302667653002002690653002402710653002002734653002902754100002702783700002502810700002102835856007002856 2018 eng d a2150-892500aTesting the predictive capabilities of ecological niche models: a case study examining Red‐bellied Woodpeckers0 aTesting the predictive capabilities of ecological niche models a cDec-12-2018 ae024960 v93 a

As humans continue to alter natural habitats indirectly and directly, species’ geographic ranges may change as they track shifting climate regimes or changing landscapes. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are frequently used to show modern ranges and forecast future range changes. These models, however, assume that a species will exhibit niche conservatism, though this is rarely tested. Here, we examine a woodpecker species with a well‐documented recent range expansion to assess the effectiveness of predictive models by comparing the pre‐ and post‐expansion climate/habitat niche using ENMs and multivariate principal components analysis. Occurrence data for the Red‐bellied Woodpecker (Melanerpes carolinus) were obtained from the pre‐expansion (1910–1939; n = 299) and post‐expansion (1980–2009; n = 868) time periods. Ecological niche models were constructed using GIS layers describing climate data and crop cover for the pre‐ and post‐expansion time periods. We then used the pre‐expansion ENM to forecast the distribution of Red‐bellied Woodpeckers into the post‐expansion time period, and vice versa, and calculated the niche overlap of the projected distributions and the actual distributions in those time periods to determine whether pre‐ and post‐expansion niches were similar. Predictive ENMs did not closely match the actual distributions in the pre‐ and post‐expansion time periods, respectively, and the pre‐expansion and post‐expansion niches were significantly different from each other (Schoener's D = 0.745, P < 0.001). Multivariate analyses revealed that the present‐day niche encompasses the past niche and that Red‐bellied Woodpeckers today have broader temperature and precipitation tolerances and are found in both more‐ and less‐forested areas than they were in the pre‐expansion era. Our analyses reveal that Red‐bellied Woodpeckers are not exhibiting climate or habitat niche conservatism, explaining why predictive ENMs for this species could not effectively track their range shift. This study emphasizes that predictive models may not be effective for species undergoing niche changes.

10aCarolinian avifauna10aclimate change10aecological niche modeling10aland cover change10aMaxent10aMelanerpes carolinus10aniche conservatism10aniche expansion10apredictive modeling10arange expansion10aRed‐bellied Woodpecker1 aFitzGerald, Alyssa, M.1 aStarkloff, Naima, C.1 aKirchman, J., J. uhttps://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.249602592nas a2200205 4500008004100000245013300041210006900174300001400243490000800257520190800265653002502173653001802198653001902216653002302235653001902258653001302277100002102290700002302311856005202334 2017 eng d00aAltitudinal Range Shifts of Birds at the Southern Periphery of the Boreal Forest: 40 Years of Change in the Adirondack Mountains0 aAltitudinal Range Shifts of Birds at the Southern Periphery of t a742–7530 v1293 a

Studies of geographic range shifts in response to climate warming that use data from Christmas Bird Counts or repeated state and provincial faunal atlases are better at detecting latitudinal shifts than altitudinal shifts because the coarse geographic scale of most citizen-science survey units masks the substantial elevational variation within their boundaries. To more directly measure altitudinal range shifts of forest-breeding bird species, we repeated an altitudinal transect survey conducted 40 years ago at Whiteface Mountain in the Adirondacks, New York, USA. We conducted roadside bird surveys at dawn and dusk at seven survey stations that ranged in altitude from 500 m to 1,425 m. We found considerable interspecific variation in the movement of altitudinal ranges, but document a preponderance of uphill shifts in both upper and lower boundaries of altitudinal breeding ranges. The shift of abundance-weighted mean altitudes for 42 species detected in both survey periods wasþ82.8 m. These shifts are correlated with a regional trend toward warmer summers from Adirondack weather station data collected over this same time period. Upper range boundaries have shifted more than lower boundaries, resulting in novel bird communities at some elevations (e.g., we found 13 species at 1,425 m vs 7 species at this altitude in 1974), resulting in a flattening of the altitudinal gradient of species richness. At low elevations we encountered several species that were not recorded on the transect in 1974, a trend we attribute to climate warming and anthropogenic habitat change at low altitudes. Our resurvey shows that there have been substantial upward range shifts in most bird species on Whiteface Mountain in the last four decades, and provides a basis for reassessment of altitudinal range dynamics at the southern edge of the North American boreal forest in the coming decades.

10aAdirondack Mountains10aboreal forest10aclimate change10aelevation gradient10arange dynamics10aresurvey1 aKirchman, J., J.1 aVan Keuren, A., E. uhttp://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.1676/16-164.102796nas a2200325 4500008004100000245013100041210006900172260001200241300001400253490000700267520158900274653002601863653001901889653003001908653001901938653002501957653002301982100001902005700001802024700001802042700001802060700002402078700002002102700001902122700001602141700001802157700001402175700002102189856026002210 2015 eng d00aInvestigating Devonian Trees as Geo-Engineers Of Past Climates: Linking Palaeosols to Palaeobotany and Experimental Geobiology0 aInvestigating Devonian Trees as GeoEngineers Of Past Climates Li c07/2015 a787–8010 v583 a

We present the rationale for a cross-disciplinary investigation addressing the ‘Devonian plant hypothesis’ which proposes that the evolutionary appearance of trees with deep, complex rooting systems represents one of the major biotic feedbacks on geochemical carbon cycling during the Phanerozoic. According to this hypothesis, trees have dramatically enhanced mineral weathering driving an increased flux of Ca2+ to the oceans and, ultimately, a 90% decline in atmospheric CO2 levels through the Palaeozoic. Furthermore, experimental studies indicate a key role for arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in soil–plant processes and especially in unlocking the limiting nutrient phosphorus in soil via Ca-phosphate dissolution mineral weathering. This suggests co-evolution of roots and symbiotic fungi since the Early Devonian could well have triggered positive feedbacks on weathering rates whereby root–fungal P release supports higher biomass forested ecosystems. Long-standing areas of uncertainty in this paradigm include the following: (1) limited fossil record documenting the origin and timeline of the evolution of tree-sized plants through the Devonian; and (2) the effects of the evolutionary advance of trees and their in situ rooting structures on palaeosol geochemistry. We are addressing these issues by integrating palaeobotanical studies with geochemical and mineralogical analyses of palaeosol sequences at selected sites across eastern North America with a particular focus on drill cores from Middle Devonian forests in Greene County, New York State.

10aarbuscular mycorrhiza10aclimate change10aDevonian plant hypothesis10aDevonian trees10aland plant evolution10amineral weathering1 aMorris, J., L.1 aLeake, J., R.1 aStein, W., E.1 aBerry, C., M.1 aMarshall, J., E. A.1 aWellman, C., H.1 aMilton, J., A.1 aHillier, S.1 aMannolini, F.1 aQuirk, J.1 aBeerling, D., J. uhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pala.12185/abstract;jsessionid=ADDF3457241BBBA0C261E716BA2BCFB9.f04t02?systemMessage=Wiley+Online+Library+will+have+intermittent+access+on+8th+August+2015+from+10%3A00-16%3A00+BST+%2F+05%3A00-11%3A00+EDT+%2F+17%302519nas a2200217 4500008004100000245010700041210006900148300001200217490000800229520182100237653002002058653002502078653002502103653001902128653002502147653002002172653002702192100002102219700002202240856003902262 2014 eng d00aRange Expansion and the Breakdown of Bergmann's Rule in Red-Bellied Woodpeckers (Melanerpes carolinus)0 aRange Expansion and the Breakdown of Bergmanns Rule in RedBellie a236-2480 v1263 a

Previous studies of northward expansion of breeding ranges of North American bird species have focused on correlated changes in climate and land-use, but very few studies have examined patterns of morphological change within the context of range expansion. We used data from museum specimens to examine geographic and temporal variation in body size of the Red-bellied Woodpecker (Melanerpes carolinus), a species undergoing dramatic range expansion. We plotted georeferenced occurrence data from Christmas Bird Counts (winter distributions going back to the year 1900), USGS Breeding Bird Surveys (summer distributions since 1966), and the holdings of twenty-six natural history museums (year-round distributions since 1867) to document the historic range of M. carolinus in decade increments. Christmas Bird Counts, but not museum specimens, indicate a trend of slow northward expansion beginning as early as the 1910s, and all data sets show rapid expansion to the north and west since the 1950s (average of 0.85° N latitude per decade and 1.06° W longitude per decade). Geographic variation in body size of specimens collected prior to the period of rapid expansion follows Bergmann's rule, with larger birds occurring in northern latitudes. This pattern breaks down in the sample of birds collected after the onset of rapid expansion, suggesting that warming temperatures since the 1950s have enabled northward range expansion in a species previously limited by cold. Birds collected at the northern boundary of their range before 1940 were larger than birds collected in recent decades from the same latitudes, further supporting the hypothesis that Red-bellied Woodpeckers have been released from a former ecological or physiological constraint in the face of climate warming.

10aBergmann's rule10aBreeding Bird Survey10aChristmas Bird Count10aclimate change10ageographic variation10arange expansion10aRed-bellied Woodpecker1 aKirchman, J., J.1 aSchneider, K., J. uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1676/13-087.100712nas a2200193 4500008004100000245016100041210006900202300001200271490000700283653002400290653001900314653002600333653002000359653002200379653003200401100001600433700002100449856004800470 2013 eng d00aPredicted Range Shifts in North American Boreal Forest Birds and the Effect of Climate Change on Genetic Diversity in Blackpoll Warblers (Setophaga striata)0 aPredicted Range Shifts in North American Boreal Forest Birds and a543-5550 v1410aBoreal forest birds10aclimate change10aConservation genetics10aMicrosatellites10aSetophaga striata10aSpecies distribution models1 aRalston, J.1 aKirchman, J., J. uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10592-012-0418-y02957nas a2200229 4500008004100000245014000041210006900181300001200250490000700262520218200269653002202451653001402473653003102487653001902518653002502537653003202562653002602594100001602620700002002636700001602656856005502672 2008 eng d00aEnvironmental Influences on Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Body-size Variation in California Ground Squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi)0 aEnvironmental Influences on Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Bod a602-6130 v353 a

Aim  In order to understand how ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) may respond to future environmental change, we investigated five biotic and environmental factors potentially responsible for explaining body-size variation in this species across California. We examined the concordance of spatial patterns with temporal body-size change since the last glacial maximum (LGM).

Location  California, western North America.

Methods  We quantified body size of modern populations of ground squirrels (n = 81) and used a model-selection approach to determine the best variables (sex, vegetation, number of congeners, temperature and/or precipitation) explaining geographical variation in body size among modern populations. We also quantified body size of one fossil population in northern California (n = 39) and compared temporal body-size change in S. beecheyi at this location since the LGM with model predictions.

Results  Body size of modern populations conformed to Bergmann’s rule, with larger individuals in northern (wetter and cooler) portions of California. However, the models suggest that precipitation, rather than temperature or other variables, may best explain variation in body size across modern spatial gradients. Our conclusion is supported by the temporal data, demonstrating that the body size of S. beecheyi has increased in northern California since the LGM, concordant with precipitation but not temperature change in the region.

Main conclusions  Precipitation, rather than temperature, vegetation or number of congeneric species, was the main factor explaining both spatial and temporal patterns of body-size variation in S. beecheyi. The integration of space and time provides a powerful mechanism for predicting how local populations may respond to current and future climatic changes.

10aBergmann’s rule10abody size10aCalifornia ground squirrel10aclimate change10alast glacial maximum10aNorth America;precipitation10aSpermophilus beecheyi1 aBlois, J.L.1 aFeranec, R., S.1 aHadly, E.A. uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2007.01836.x